15 Jan 2025

There has been a tentative buildup in momentum; Euro (EUR) could rise to 1.0325, potentially reaching 1.0350.

In the longer run, EUR has entered a range trading phase; it is likely to trade between 1.0220 and 1.0400 for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note

EUR/USD likely to trade between 1.0220 and 1.0400

24-HOUR VIEW: Following a significant rebound of the EUR from 1.0176 on Monday, we noted yesterday, when the EUR was at 1.0265, that there exists the potential for further increases. However, we also mentioned that any upward movement is unlikely to surpass the robust resistance at 1.0310. We identified support levels at 1.0235 and 1.0205. The subsequent price actions aligned with our projections, as the EUR fell to 1.0237 before climbing to a peak of 1.0308 during the late New York session. Although upward momentum is beginning to develop, it remains tentative. Today, the EUR may rise to 1.0325, with the possibility of reaching 1.0350. Support levels are positioned at 1.0275 and 1.0245.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (January 13, spot at 1.0245), we adjusted our outlook for the EUR, indicating that the risk has shifted to the downside, with 1.0190 being a critical level to observe. After the EUR fell to 1.0176 and then rebounded sharply, we noted yesterday (January 14, spot at 1.0265) that while downward momentum has somewhat diminished, only a breach of the 1.0310 level, identified as 'strong resistance,' would indicate that the downside risk has lessened. The EUR reached a high of 1.0308 during New York trading. Although the 'strong resistance' level of 1.0310 has not been definitively surpassed, the downward momentum has largely abated. It appears that the EUR has entered a phase of range trading. For the time being, we anticipate it will fluctuate between 1.0220 and 1.0400.