03 Dec 2024

• Gold price nurses losses below $2,650 early Tuesday, awaits US JOLTS survey for fresh impetus.   
• US Dollar recovers from Fedspeak-induced pain as market mood sours on China concerns, looming Trump tariffs threat.
• Technically, Gold price stays below the 21-day SMA at $2,641 with a bearish daily RSI.
• Gold prices are currently experiencing a decline, trading below $2,650 during Asian sessions on Tuesday. Despite this drop, prices remain within a recent range as market participants await crucial US employment data that may influence future trading decisions. The upcoming JOLTS Job Openings report will initiate a significant week of important labor statistics, which are expected to provide insights into potential interest rate reductions by the US Federal Reserve.
  
  Attention is now directed towards the prevailing sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, particularly in light of recent comments from various Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
• The US Dollar (USD) experienced a decline during American trading on Monday following remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated that "policy remains sufficiently restrictive such that an additional cut at our next meeting will not significantly alter the monetary policy stance and will provide ample opportunity to subsequently moderate the pace of rate reductions, if necessary, to ensure progress towards our inflation target."
  
  The Greenback reversed its earlier gains from Monday's trading session, driven by widespread risk aversion as traders reacted to US President-elect Donald Trump's warning over the weekend regarding the so-called 'BRICS' nations. Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa should they establish a new currency or support an alternative currency that could supplant the Greenback.
  
  Nevertheless, the resurgence of demand for the USD as a safe haven early Tuesday has left Gold buyers cautious. Ongoing economic concerns in China and the global tariff threats posed by Trump continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
  
  The future trajectory of Gold prices is likely to depend on the forthcoming US employment data and its influence on expectations regarding Fed rate cuts. Current market assessments indicate a 75% likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut later this month, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, an increase from approximately 65% observed the previous day. Expectations of a dovish Fed typically support the price of non-interest-bearing Gold.
  
  Additionally, Gold traders remain cautious due to the geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine, as well as Israel and Iran, which could significantly impact the price of this traditional safe-haven asset.

• Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

  Having closed below the critical short-term 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, now at $2,641, Gold buyers seem reluctant to step in.

  The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits beneath the 50 level, justifying the cautious approach.

  The previous week’s Bear Cross also remains in play, adding to the downside risks in Gold price.

  Gold sellers need to crack the $2,621 static support to challenge the previous week’s low of $2,605.

  A sustained drop below that level could expose the 100-day SMA at $2,577.

  Conversely, recapturing the 21-day SMA support-turned-resistance at $2,641 is critical to reviving the recent recovery.

  The next relevant resistance aligns at the 50-day SMA at $2,669, above which the $2,700 level will be on buyers’ radars.