14 Mar 2025

Gold prices surged following US President Donald Trump's stern remarks regarding tariffs. Concerns about a potential recession and economic growth continue to loom large among traders, as the trade conflict persists. As reciprocal tariffs draw closer, investors are increasingly turning to safe-haven assets. Earlier, the price of gold (XAU/USD) reached a record high of 3,004 before retracting to below $3,000, yet it still recorded a weekly increase of over 2.5% as of Friday. The heightened demand for bullion was spurred by President Trump's response to European counter-tariffs, in which he threatened to impose 200% tariffs on wine and champagne imported from Europe.

This development has unsettled market participants, leading to a belief that President Trump is unlikely to back down or soften his position on tariffs, further intensifying worries about economic growth and the demand for riskier assets. Additionally, US yields reached a new five-day peak on Thursday before experiencing a decline.

Daily Market Movers Overview: Tariff Positioning  
President Donald Trump's assertive tariff policy has raised concerns regarding its potential impact on economic growth, leading to diminished demand for risk assets and increased investments in gold-backed funds, as reported by Bloomberg.  
This week, several Chinese jewelry stocks have experienced significant gains. On Friday, Zhejiang Ming Jewelry Co., listed on the mainland, reached its maximum allowable increase of 10% for the fourth consecutive day. Similarly, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group also saw an uptick, indicating that investors are seeking companies likely to benefit from rising gold prices, according to Bloomberg.  
Marcus Garvey, head of the Commodities Strategy team at Macquarie Group, noted on Thursday that current holdings remain approximately 20% below their peak in 2020, suggesting considerable potential for increased inflows into the precious metal, as reported by Reuters.  
The CME Fedwatch Tool indicates a 97.0% probability of no changes to interest rates in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for March 19. The likelihood of a rate cut during the May 7 meeting is currently estimated at 30.3%.  
Technical Analysis: Caution Against Profit-Taking  
The $3,000 threshold has come into focus swiftly, just one day after BNP Paribas projected a target price of $3,200 for gold in the second quarter. With both European and US trading sessions still to unfold, a rapid ascent could occur. However, traders are advised to avoid entering positions upon breaching the $3,000 mark, as this level is likely to trigger short-term profit-taking.  
The recent all-time high of $2,993 could be surpassed at any moment. Watch for the psychological barrier of $3,000 as prices rise. Beyond this point lies uncharted territory, where daily Pivot Point resistances and supports can provide directional guidance. Key resistance levels to monitor include the daily R1 at $3,007 and R2 at $3,026.  
On the downside, the daily Pivot Point is positioned at $2,970. Should this level be breached, the S1 support around $2,951 will be significant. Further down, the S2 support is located at $2,914, just before the critical $2,900 level, which is expected to offer substantial support.