12 Feb 2025

Conversely, some forecasts suggest potential price increases. For instance, Long Forecast anticipates that oil prices may experience wide fluctuations in 2026, with the crude price potentially climbing to a high of $93.86 in February

WTI has continued its upward trajectory, reaching a two-week peak of approximately $72.95 during the early Asian trading session on Wednesday.

The increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is contributing to the rise in WTI prices.

Additionally, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 9.043 million barrels in the previous week.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, is currently trading at approximately $72.95 during the early hours of the Asian session on Wednesday. The price of WTI has increased to a two-week high, driven by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Recent U.S. sanctions on the Russian oil sector, enacted in January, have heightened concerns regarding the availability of Russian and Iranian oil, thereby supporting an increase in crude prices. PVM oil analyst John Evans noted, "With the U.S. intensifying its pressure on Iranian exports and ongoing sanctions affecting Russian supplies, Asian crude grades remain robust, contributing to the rally observed yesterday."

Furthermore, the escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East are also propelling WTI prices upward. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that if Hamas fails to release Israeli hostages by noon on Saturday, the fragile ceasefire in Gaza would be terminated. This statement followed U.S. President Donald Trump's call on Monday for Hamas to release all prisoners by the same deadline, warning that failure to do so could lead to the cancellation of the ceasefire and significant escalation of conflict.

In contrast, a significant increase in U.S. crude inventories last week may limit further gains for WTI. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that crude oil stockpiles in the United States rose by 9.043 million barrels for the week ending February 7, compared to an increase of 5.025 million barrels the previous week. Market expectations had predicted a rise of only 2.8 million barrels.

Additionally, on Monday, Trump announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the United States to 25%, stating there would be "no exceptions or exemptions." Analysts suggest that such tariff policies from the Trump administration could lead to inflationary pressures, compelling the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates. This scenario could strengthen the U.S. dollar, potentially exerting downward pressure on the prices of commodities denominated in USD.