17 Feb 2025

• WTI is cautiously steady above $70.00 as investors stare at the Trump-Putin meeting.
• The impact of the Russia-Ukraine truce would be negative for the Oil price.
• OPEC will likely delay its planned monthly supply increase.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the NYMEX are trading cautiously above the seven-week low of $70.15 during Monday's European session. The oil market is exhibiting a careful approach as investors await further developments in the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Last week, President Donald Trump of the United States announced that the leaders of both Russia and Ukraine have consented to engage in peace talks.

President Trump stated that he had a "lengthy and highly productive" discussion with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has agreed to initiate negotiations with Ukraine. Additionally, he instructed his team to commence the peace discussions.

Over the weekend, Trump indicated that he is anticipated to engage in discussions regarding the conclusion of the three-year conflict in Ukraine in the near future.

Analysts at Philip Nova predict that, "Should negotiations result in a resolution, an influx of Russian oil into global markets could substantially exert downward pressure on oil prices."

In the meantime, reports have emerged that OPEC is considering postponing its planned monthly supply increases, initially set to commence in April, which has provided temporary relief to oil prices, according to Bloomberg.

This decision stands in contrast to President Donald Trump’s previous request to Saudi Arabia to boost oil production by two million barrels last month.